Notes from an internet shutdown

October 28: Tanzania general elections
(Results not yet tallied)

Yesterday as polling stations opened in Tanzania, the internet was shut down—blocking communication via email, text and social media—and the reality of that has made it hard to file this article. To a certain extent, I blame myself: every single election before this one has been open to social media. I gambled on the optimism with which we conduct our public affairs. I was wrong. 

The country had a general election yesterday, and is still waiting for results. In the City of Dar es Salaam where I live, reports and rumors have been running rampant. An opposition candidate for Kawe Constituency, Ms. Halima Mdee, was arrested and had had her house searched by police after she reported suspicious activity from the neighboring plot of land. The ferry service to Zanzibar from Dar es Salaam- a lifeline of goods and services- stopped running on election day. On Tuesday, the opposition candidate was arrested in Zanzibar while heading to the polls. Footage has spread of a heavy military presence in the isles.

Tanzania has had multi-party elections since 1995, making this the sixth general election in which Tanzanians get to vote for a variety of parties. In my last article for The Ballot, I talked about our current president John Magufuli’s bid for a second term as president. In this article, I look at the opposition, which has made a bid for the presidency. 

Over the last 25 years the opposition has been present though relatively weak; the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has never once lost the presidency or control of Tanzania’s parliament, the National Assembly. In the last makeup of the National Assembly, the combined opposition parties have been able to win only a 27 percent share. Parties have come and gone, grown in influence only to wane after a few years, with new parties emerging every so often.

This reflects how young a democratic state Tanzania is. The constantly shifting landscape of competing ideas and personalities offered up by a diverse and sometimes chaotic opposition reflect a conversation about the many different visions we have of ourselves and what we want as one nation. There are debates about, for example, the state of our civil rights and liberties, the economy as it directly affects us through the cost of living and our ability to generate income, and what kind of leadership we want: strong paternalism or a softer, more collaborative and inclusive approach?

The opposition’s focus on vying for the presidency has yielded a number of credible challengers to the ruling party more than once.

This year Tundu Lissu of Chadema offered tangible competition to President John Magufuli. Mr. Lissu is a lawyer by profession and became a member of Parliament in 2010. He proved to be a very outspoken and critical voice. In September of 2017, he was shot by unknown assailants in the capital city, Dodoma. The case is thought to be political, though it is still open. He survived the attack and recovered overseas in Kenya and Europe, during which time he made known his wishes to return and run for President. In July of this year, he did exactly that.

Chadema has managed to establish itself over the years by persisting and maintaining their separation from the state. Unlike the CCM, which is a social democratic party, its ideology leans toward the center-right. It has a credible stronghold in several parts of the country, most notably the northern regions where some of our most famous--and lucrative--tourist attractions are located, such as the Ngorongoro crater and Mount Kilimanjaro.

This year, Chadema has been joined in the opposition by ACT-Wazalendo, a very young left-wing organization formed just before the last election. The party is currently headed in Zanzibar by Seif Sharif Hamad, commonly referred to as Maalim Seif- an honorific form of ‘teacher’- who himself migrated to ACT-Wazalendo from the Civic United Front (CUF) party.  Maalim Seif had already run for president several times in Zanzibar, an island off the coast of Tanzania that has its own semi-autonomous government, but is also part of Tanzania, and subject to its laws. In 2015, when he conceded the victory to the ruling party, the atmosphere was tense. There was a strong military presence in Zanzibar Town and curfew measures put in place to prevent any reactions or even questioning of the election results, results that had been deliberated for an unusually long time by the Zanzibar Electoral Commission before being announced. On Tuesday, he was arrested while going to the polls, and released shortly thereafter. 

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In Tanzania’s last election, in 2015, the main opposition parties came together as an alliance named UKAWA whose aim was to increase the presence of opposition in the parliament and share resources. In the current election, the opposition came together in what they have termed a “loose alliance” to support each other’s candidates where only one party might stand, but mostly to support a single candidate for presidency-- Lissu. Unlike UKAWA, which was a legally recognized and registered alliance in 2015, in 2020 the opposition didn’t have time to forge a formal agreement and register before campaign season started. They opted for a defacto partnership rather than de jure.

During the campaign, ACT-Wazalendo supported  Chadema’s presidential candidate on Tanzania Mainland; Chadema supported Seif, ACT-Wazalendo’s presidential candidate in Zanzibar. This means that in both Tanzania mainland and Zanzibar, two strong candidates ran against the ruling party candidates President Magufuli for Tanzania and former Minister of Defense Hussein Mwinyi for Zanzibar.

Lissu attracted very large numbers of people at his rallies despite teargassings happening at opposition rallies and a general sense that they are dangerous to attend. President Magufuli, also had large rallies. Considering the effect of various laws passed in recent years governing information and the media, there were not credible polls and there is very little media coverage that could give a clear idea of the approval ratings of any of the candidates running so far at any level.

Despite this, the Lissu phenomenon is comparable to the Lowassa phenomenon that preceded him in 2015, when Edward Lowassa, a former CCM cadre, ran as Chadema candidate. Both candidates attracted a good deal of attention and their claims to be able to gain the popular vote and be first past the post could not be easily dismissed. Mr. Lissu’s campaign message revolved the terms ‘Justice’ and ‘Freedom’ which resonate well with all sectors of society right now. Unlike Lowassa, who was hindered by past allegations of corruption, Lissu has been seen by many voters in a rather favorable light. The fact that he was shot has also given him a huge boost.

With absolute transparency, this election would afford Tanzanians the opportunity to find out if we are indeed ready for a move to the ideological right beyond the end of this competition, having been a socialist-flavored state for so long. As with so many other nations around the world, transparency is not guaranteed and we will have to wait and see how things go.

This is an unusual election with much at stake: will this be the first time that an incumbent is facing a credible threat to his second term as president? Can the opposition finally take the day?

As for the populace: we are preparing to adopt a brace position as we wait for the results of the election. We are scouring the news every day and comparing it to what is reported outside the official and permitted channels, we are triangulating and verifying our information. Our phones are receiving the odd push notification. Relatives have been each other to stock up on basic goods and services, cash. And we are going to our places of worship, relaxing by the beach, planning meetings as life goes on.

Tanzanians value the opportunity to vote here: participating in our governance directly even if it only comes once every five years is not something we have come to take for granted. We have seen what it can mean not to have as stable a democracy as possible. Please, do continue to observe us via the media, if you can.